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02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Known to be a formidable foe on their own court, the Atlanta Hawks have stumbled a bit during a four-game homestand and look to restore order at Philips Arena tonight versus the Phoenix Suns.
The Hawks have lost the first two installments of the current homestand and recently suffered a 98-87 loss to Philadelphia Saturday night. Jeff Teague recorded a team-best 21 points and Ivan Johnson notched his first career double-double with 14 points and 13 rebounds for Atlanta, which lost to Memphis in the opener of the residency and had won 12 of 15 games before the current two-game slide.
"We've just got to lock up and play defense," Johnson said of Atlanta's interior defense. "That's all it is, playing defense."
Usual Atlanta scorers Joe Johnson and Josh Smith were held to 16 and nine points, respectively, in a losing cause. Smith pulled down 10 rebounds as the Hawks fell to 8-3 as the host and sit two games behind Miami for the Southeast Division lead. Indiana will visit Philips Arena on Wednesday.
Atlanta hopes Johnson can crack the 20-point mark tonight since it's an impressive 11-1 when he hits that mark. The Hawks announced this weekend that forward Jason Collins is expected to miss two weeks with an elbow sprain and are already playing without forward Al Horford, who's out for at least a few months because of a pectoral tear. Atlanta hopes Zaza Pachulia can pick up his inside game while his teammates heal.
Phoenix has alternated wins and losses over its last six games, and will play two straight and five of the next six games on the road. It is 4-8 away from the Valley of the Sun this season.
The Suns recently handed the Charlotte Bobcats a 95-89 defeat on Saturday at home, receiving 17 points from Michael Redd in his first start of the season. Marcin Gortat ended with 12 points and 12 rebounds, while Robin Lopez contributed 11 of his 13 points in the fourth quarter for the Suns.
"I think we need to stay focused, we need to stay somewhat loose I think," Lopez said after helping Phoenix hand Charlotte its 11th straight loss. "I think tonight seemed like some of the guys were having fun and obviously we had some nice dunks. I think before the game the atmosphere was a little loose, we had fun out there."
Steve Nash chipped in 11 points and handed out 10 assists. Phoenix was without starting guard Jared Dudley (thigh), snapping his career-best consecutive games played streak at 206. It was the fourth-longest active streak in the NBA. Dudley is questionable for Monday's game.
Meanwhile, Gortat has double-doubles in 14 of his last 15 games and has pulled down 10-plus rebounds in 15 straight games -- four shy of Charles Barkley's 19-game run back in 1995-96.
The Suns will also visit Milwaukee before returning home to host Houston, and will hit the road again for a three-game trek against Sacramento, Golden State and Denver.
Phoenix swept a home-and-home series with the Hawks a season ago and has won 14 of the past 18 meetings between the teams. The Suns are 9-3 in their previous 12 visits to Atlanta.
<< Kobe leads Lakers into Philadelphia
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The superstars keep rolling into South Philly and Los
Angeles Lakers stud Kobe Bryant is next on the A-list when he leads his team
against the 76ers tonight from Wells Fargo Center.
Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, LeBron Jame
<< Clippers resume road trip in Orlando
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A possible trade destination for Dwight Howard is Los
Angeles with the revamped Clippers. For now, however, Howard is still property
of the Orlando Magic, who will open a three-game homestand tonight versus
the Clippers at Am
<< Pachuca erases three-goal deficit to stun Toluca
Toluca, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mauro Cejas converted a penalty kick in the
90th minute as Pachuca rallied from three goals behind to stun Toluca, 4-3, on
Sunday in Mexico's Clausura.
Toluca built a three-goal lead after 17 minutes on an
<< Howard-less Red Wings aim for win in Phoenix
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not having their starting goaltender over the weekend did
little to help Detroit shake off its road issues. However, a trip to Phoenix
just might do the trick.
The Red Wings look to record a sweep of their season series wi
Raptors seek another win over Wizards >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards meet for the
second time in four nights this evening, as the two teams do battle at the
Verizon Center this evening.
These two bottom feeders met on Friday in Toronto and Leandro
Stoudemire to miss Monday's game after death of brother >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Knicks forward Amare Stoudemire will
miss Monday's home game against Utah after the death of his brother.
"Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Stoudemire family for their loss," the
Knicks said on
O's deal Guthrie to Rox for Hammel and Lindstrom >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have traded pitcher
Jeremy Guthrie to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for pitchers Jason Hammel
and Matt Lindstrom.
Guthrie was Baltimore's opening day starter in 2011 and pos
Lisicki withdraws from Paris event >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth seed Sabine Lisicki pulled out of this
week's WTA event in Paris, citing a viral illness.
Estonian Kaia Kanepi also pulled out of the Open GDF Suez tournament due to a
right shoulder injury. She title
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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