New York On New Bowl

Football Betting Lines

Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts have named former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano as the team's next head coach. The Colts, coming off a 2-14 season, needed a new head coach after getting rid of Jim Caldwell last week.

 

More to follow.

 

Tom Brady has had pretty decent numbers the last three contests against the Giants, averaging 321 yards per game with a 64-percent completion percentage and five touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Nevertheless, he has won just one of those games.

 

Most of the recent Super Bowls have favored the under, including the previous match-up between these two clubs. In fact, only two of the last seven games went over the total and both of those contests involved the Steelers.

 

On the other hand, the Giants beat New England this season with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks and running back Ahmad Bradshaw out of the lineup, and the addition of those two skilled players should keep this one close throughout.

 

Four years ago, I predicted a Giants' cover along with a possible upset in Super Bowl XLII. I am less confident about New York's chances of covering this time around, considering the line is only three points.

 

THE REMATCH FAVORS THE LOSER

 

The Patriots also were involved in comparable circumstances back in 2001. They beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, 20-17, as two-touchdown underdogs after losing to St. Louis, 24-17, as eight-point dogs during the regular season.

 

Two years earlier, the Titans faced the Rams in Week 8, winning outright as three-point underdogs, 24-21. Still, St. Louis bounced back to win the Super Bowl, 23-16, as a seven-point favorite.

 

Will New York be able to stop the streak at three or will New England continue the trend and make it four straight? The one thing going for the Giants is their ability to hold onto the football. Coach Tom Coughlin's club has committed just one turnover in three postseason games.

 

On the positive side, New York has bounced back with solid playoff performances, including victories over two of those teams, the Packers and 49ers.

 

When those two beliefs merged together, the best way to attack Super Bowl XLVI is to play a teaser, taking New York plus nine points along with under 61.5 points.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.